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The person dubbed as the 'world's most accurate economist' predicts former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election and the Republicans will take full control of Congress on November 5.
Christophe Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, predicted that a Trump victory would provide a short-term boost to the economy, but bring long-term complications, specifically to the rising deficit.
“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump victory [2] #GOP clean sweep,” Barraud wrote on X.
Barraud, 38, of France, who Bloomberg has ranked as the best economic forecaster for the United States economy in 11 of the last 12 years, claims a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress is the most likely scenario and would result in a gross domestic product bump estimated to be between 2.1% and 2.3% in 2025. A Trump victory with a split Congress would likely see his economic agenda stalled and result in a focus on tariffs, which would slow the U.S. economy long-term and hinder global growth, according to Barraud.
The economist also acknowledged that a win for Vice President Kamala Harris would likely continue the status-quo split of control in Congress during an interview with Business Insider, though he believes the economy will see steady growth short-term regardless of which candidate wins.
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